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i360 Indices

UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. 

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05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

At the June policy meeting, the MPC voted to keep repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and retain stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ with 4:2 vote each, with two external members votng for a 25bps rate cut and change in stance to 'neutral'

Growth forecast for FY25 was increased by 20bps to 7.2%, with an upward revision for all the quarters. Meanwhile, the inflation forecast for FY25 was kept unchanged at 4.5% respectively. However, monsoon would be a key deciding factor and outlook would be clearer in August. Additionally, the fiscal glide-path would be known in July when the government presents its Budget. While some tilt is expected towards consumption, it would aid in increasing capacity utilization and demand recovery

If monsoon and fiscal outlook is favourable, a change of stance could be considered in the next policy meeting itself. However, in case global and domestic developments are not in favour, MPC would consider change in stance in October or December. Repo rate cut should follow after change in stance, with upward revision to growth implying no hurry to cut rates

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in June, the FOMC maintained status quo while provided a hawkish guidance via its 'dot plot' to indicate a higher policy rate profile for 2024 and 2025 respectively. The slew of economic projections made would suggest that the central bank is working with 'soft-landing' scenario. The FOMC Chair emphasized that future actions would remain data dependent.

Our base-case for July of status quo remains in place while the central bank could retain its hawkish guidance.

Continued disinflation will likely open up space for the FOMC to reduce the policy rate by 25-50bps in 2024, 100bps in 2025 and 75bps in 2026.

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in June, the BoE maintained status quo in a split of 7-2 members within the MPC. The dissenting members voted for rate cuts. The guidance provided was dovish in which guidance of prospective rate cuts was provided.

The BoE could commence easing in August by lowering its policy rate by 25bps if disinflation shows up prominently as is expected by the central bank.

As inflation slows further and labour market cools, we see the BoE easing policy around June to August policy meeting with a cumulative 50bps-75bps expected over 2024.

European Central Bank

In its latest policy meeting in June, the ECB cut its policy rate by 25bps while indicating that future actions would remain data-dependent and that it is not on a pre-set easing course. Both inflation and growth projections were revised higher at the margin.

In its policy meeting in April, we see the ECB maintaining status quo while providing further guidance of a possible staggered rate cutting cycle that could in the offing.

We expect the ECB to cut rates by a further 50bps-75bps over 2024 that will be contingent on evidence of a further disinfaltion trend unfolding.

People's Bank of China

On the back of substantial easing already delivered, the PBoC cut the RRR by 50bps in February 2024 while it continues to inject liquidity via OMOs and its other refinancing programs

We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps.

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

Group Head – Global Markets – Sales, Trading and Research

Market Outlook & ICICI Direct Tools

16 Nov 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Rupee to depreciate 6-8% during Trump 2.0.

16 Nov 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Views on the global economy and markets by Mr. B. Prasanna

05 Oct 24 06:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Views on the Indian economy and markets by Mr. B. Prasanna.

05 Oct 24 06:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Nakshatra – An insightful and engaging discussion on economy and market trends with the industry stalwarts

05 Oct 24 05:05 PM Exclusive Videos

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 21 June 2024

Q32024

Q42024

Q12025

This content is issued by ICICI Bank Limited ("ICICI Bank") for generic educational, and information purposes only, and is not intended to replace independent professional judgment. The views and opinions expressed herein, are those of the individual authors/speakers/contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ICICI Bank or the position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. ICICI Bank may make business decisions that may be at odds with the positions expressed herein. With regards to the information contained herein, ICICI Bank shall not be held responsible for any inaccuracies or omissions, or for any claims, losses or damages arising in any way from or in connection with errors or omissions in any information presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. ICICI Bank makes no accuracy or reliability or warranty of any kind, express or implied, in relation to the information contained herein, or any view, position or information contained therein, or presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. The information contained herein, may include links to third-party resources and websites. These links are provided for your convenience only and do not signify that ICICI Bank endorses, approves or makes any representation or claim regarding the accuracy, copyright, compliance, legality, security, suitableness, the absence of viruses or malware, or any other aspects of the third-party resources or websites.

Any information contained herein, should not be construed as an offer, invitation, solicitation, solution or advice of any kind to buy, sell or otherwise invest or deal in any securities, financial products/instruments or services offered by ICICI Bank or any other entity/person. ICICI Bank or any of its employees, officers and agents are not acting as your financial adviser or in a fiduciary capacity in respect of this proposed transaction with you unless otherwise expressly agreed by us in writing. This content is generic and does not take into account your personal circumstances. Before entering into any transaction related to the information contained herein, you should take steps to ensure that you understand the transaction and have made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction in the light of your own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits of entering into such transaction and should seek your own financial, business, legal, tax and other advice regarding the appropriateness of entering into such transactions.

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Events

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TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

IN-HOUSE VIEWS

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